SUGGESTED PROBLEM SOLVING OUTLINE (STOCK-FLOW PROBLEMS)
Introduction to Risk Analysis, Fall 2001
I. Develop initial models
- Draw a box-model
- Label variables involved; identify which is to be solved for
- Use the box-model to set up a model in the form of equations
II. Analyze and develop models
- Analyze for further understanding and future use
- Solve for quantities of interest
- Make useful simplifications by collecting terms, substituting, etc.
III. Add details
- Plug in numbers
- Check units of measurement
- Include adjustment factors for different units
IV. Crunch numbers
V. Analyze and revise
- Analyze for further understanding and future use
- Check assumptions made
- If appropriate, alter model (simplify or complexify as appropriate)
VI. Check and revise
- Has the correct question been answered?
- Does the answer make sense? (units, order of magnitude)
- Check individual steps
VII. Organize and communicate
- Could someone else readily follow your method (including reasoning)?
- Could they easily identify inputs and assumptions?