PROJECT ASSIGNMENT FOR M394C/CAM394C: Introduction to Risk Analysis

PROJECT ASSIGNMENT (M394C/CAM394C: Introduction to Risk Analysis)

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Students enrolled in M394C or CAM394C: Introduction to Risk Analysis will be required to do a risk analysis project. This is to be a group project.

Topic: You may choose one of the following:

1. Problem 7-D (p.p. 256 - 257) in the textbook. This concerns the analysis of risks from exposure to the industrial solvent trichloroethylene (TCE) from contaminated wells in the town of Woburn, Massachusetts. This situation and resulting legal action were the subject of the 1995 book and 1999 film A Civil Action. (One copy of the book has been put on reserve in the PMA library; here are several other copies in various UT libraries.)

2. The article Everyday Exposure to Toxic Pollutants in the February, 1998 issue of Scientific American, states,

"Most people can limit potentially harmful exposure by avoiding products that contain such pollutants. But other worrisome vapors are difficult to avoid.

For example, the major sources of exposure to chloroform--a gas that provokes concern because it can cause cancer in animals subjected to high concentrations--are showers, boiling water and clothes washers. It forms from the chlorine used to treat water supplies. Because piped water is something that people simply cannot do without, the only way to minimize household exposure to chloroform is to drink bottled water (or tap water that is run through a good-quality charcoal filter) and to improve ventilation in the bathroom and laundry."

The topic of this project is to analyze the risks from chloroform caused by exposure to Austin water. Include exposure through ingestion, inhalation, and dermal contact. Consider special populations that may be at especially high risk. (Possibilities to consider: swimmers, people with a high percentage of body fat, laundry workers) What effect will

measures such as drinking bottled water, filtering drinking water, using chlorine-reducing filters in showers, ventilating bathroom and laundry, or filters for swimming pool water have in reducing any risk? How do risks from chloroform compare with risks from other substances in Austin water? (You don't have to consider all of these subtopics, but need to select which ones you consider to make a meaningful and coherent topic --e.g., if you considering the special population of swimmers and the mitigation method of ventilating laundries is not coherent.)

3. Another topic of your choosing, provided it meets the following criteria:

It analyzes the risk to humans, another animal species, or a plant species from a toxic risk to which the species is exposed in more than one way.
At least one additional question such as risk to special populations or the effect of possible mitigation actions is investigated.

Timeline:

A project proposal is due Friday, September 21. You should discuss your project with me before then, especially if you choose option 3.Your proposal should include all of the following:

List of group members

Precise questions to be studied. (Some changes in these will be permitted as needed, but you should show in your proposal that you have put some thought into what you plan to study.)

Some inputs, sources, and any relevant discussion.

As we discuss various techniques in risk analysis, you should try out those that are appropriate to your topic.

Written project reports are due Wednesday, November 28 (the Wednesday after Thanksgiving). Short oral reports will be given that day or later; exact details will be worked out later.

Guidelines:

This is to be a group project, with 2 to 4 students per group. (Starting with 3 or 4 is recommended, in case a group member decides to drop the course.)
You are expected to research the inputs into your analysis. You are to use the best inputs you can find within the limitations of what is available in UT libraries, the web, and other readily available sources. (For example, if you choose topic 2, the City of Austin Utilities is an appropriate source for information on chloroform content of Austin water.) You are not expected to gather data to obtain your inputs. You are not expected to use interlibrary loan to obtain sources not available in the UT library or on the web. You should consult the article "Disparity in Quantitative Risk Assessment: A Review of Input Distributions", by Bruce S. Binkowitz and Daniel Wartenberg, in Risk Analysis, Vol. 21, Number 1, February 2001, pp. 75-90 in looking for inputs. A copy of this article has been put on reserve in the PMA library.
Explicitly discuss the reliability and credibility of your sources of information. Do sensitivity analyses as appropriate.
You should also find some background on the toxic substance(s) involved in your project. One possible resource is Harte, Toxics A to Z : a guide to everyday pollution hazards, Berkeley, 1991, which is available in the UGL Reference Collection for use in library only.
You will not be expected to use techniques that go beyond those studied in this course (although you may do so if you wish). You will be expected to think about which techniques (among those we study) are needed, think when using techniques studied in this course, use common sense, and point out any limitations in your analysis.
You should not divide up the tasks of you project work so that one person finds inputs, one person does the analysis, and one person writes up the report. Each person in the group should be involved in each of these three aspects. However, it is fine to divide up the process of finding inputs, divide up the analyses, and divide up the writing. Each person in the group should be involved in reviewing and editing the final report.
The project report should follow the same guidelines as other written assignments. In other words, you should:

Point out any assumptions clearly, and justify them as appropriate.

Point out any value judgments you are making.

Analyze and discuss uncertainty explicitly.

Explain your reasoning clearly.

Organize your report to be user-friendly.

Each student should write up individually and hand in a short description of each group member's role in the project.