Fall, 2001 Course Announcement

M 375/M 394C/ CAM 394C: INTRODUCTION TO RISK ANALYSIS

Unique numbers: 56305 (M 375), 56465 (M 394C), 62240 (CAM 394C)

Time: MWF 2-3

Place: RLM 6.118

Instructor: Smith

Prerequisites: Calculus (M408C and D or equivalent), introductory (calculus based) probability, and introductory statistics. There are a variety of course combinations that will satisfy these prerequisites; see the website http://www.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/RA/RAprereq.html for more detail. Students who have the calculus and statistics prerequisites but not the probability prerequisite can take M362K during the summer to obtain the probability prerequisite; students who have the calculus and probability prerequisites but not the statistics prerequisite can take M378K or (if offered) M358K during the summer to satisfy the statistics prerequisite.

Audience: Graduate students and advanced undergraduates in a variety of fields including biology, chemistry, economics, engineering, math, physics, psychology, public health, public policy, and statistics.

Text: Kammen and Hassenzahl, Should We Risk It? Exploring Environmental, Health, and Technological Problem Solving, Princeton University Press. (Paperback edition expected in June, 2001)

Course Description: This is an introductory course in risk analysis, with applications to environmental, health, and technological problems. Mathematical and statistical topics covered include flow models, lognormal distribution, Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian estimates, basic toxicological models, logistic models, event trees, and fault trees. Applications include carcinogens and other toxic substances, spread of disease, climate change, and safety of nuclear plants. As time permits, we will also discuss risk perception and communication. The undergraduate (M375) and graduate (M394C/CAM394C) courses will meet together but have different assignments.

For more information, see the course first day handout.