Unique Numbers 56305/56465/62240

Instructor: Smith, RLM 10.136, 471-6142, mks@math.utexas.edu

Office hours: MWF 11-11:30 and MW 3 - 3:30; other times by mutual agreement. I will need to cancel office hours now and then to accommodate meetings, oral exams, etc. I will try to give you several days advance notice whenever this happens.

Text: Should We Risk It?, Kammen and Hassenzahl, Princeton U. Press, (paper) 2001

I will be supplementing the text occasionally with additional material. Since this is the first time I have taught this course, I cannot give you much information on pacing. However, if it turns out that we cannot cover all the material in the text, I will omit portions of the last two chapters rather than rush to cover all material.

Course goals: As the course title states, this is an introduction to risk analysis. It is not intended to make you an expert in risk analysis. It will introduce you to some of the basic techniques and issues in risk analysis of health, environmental, and technological problems The course should prepare you to read a fair percentage of articles on risk analysis (in journals such as Risk Analysis) with a fair amount of understanding. From a broader perspective, the course will give you experience in mathematical modeling, involving both deterministic and probabilistic approaches, that can be applied in other areas as well as risk analysis. For undergraduates, this course also serves the role of a "capstone course" that helps integrate material from other courses.

Some homework assignments (as well as the graduate class project) will be designated as group assignments. When this is the case, only one write-up is to be handed in for each group; however, each group member should write individually and hand in a short account of each group member's role in the assignment.

Be sure to pay attention to items 1(a) - (d) under "Ethical Matters" below in writing up written assignments.

I will be grading on your reasoning and the quality of your explanations and discussion, not just on computations. Communication is an extremely important part of risk analysis, and therefore of this course. As mentioned above, the textbook sometimes falls down on communication, so do not use it as a model of what is acceptable. (To international students: I will make allowances for grammar, punctuation, and spelling.)

Do not hand in computer output that is neither requested nor referred to in your write-up, but be sure to include that which is.

In addition to assignments to be handed in, I will often give class preparation assignments. Some of these will be recommendations (e.g., background reading for lectures, thinking about a problem to be discussed in class) for students who prefer to prepare before lectures; others will be required (e.g., working exercises that you might be asked to present in class, or reading for class discussion).

Grades will be computed using the following approximate guidelines:

Undergraduate class: Class participation 5%, final exam 15%, homework 80%. The lowest two homework grades (or the equivalent, if not all homeworks are equally long) will be dropped in computing the homework average, to allow for a normal amount of illness, emergencies, bad weeks, and a learning curve.

Graduate classes: Class participation 5%, final exam 15%, project 15%, homework 65%. The lowest two homework grades (or the equivalent, if not all homeworks are equally long) will be dropped in computing the homework average, to allow for a normal amount of illness, emergencies, bad weeks, and a learning curve.

Comment on counting participation: I don't usually count class participation in a graduate or advanced undergraduate course, but since communication and listening to a variety of perspectives are integral parts of risk analysis, I am including this as part of the grade in this course. The class participation grade will admittedly (and perhaps necessarily) be by impression, so I am only counting it 5%. My impressions will be based on: attendance (especially on days when you are given an assignment for class discussion), preparation for class discussion, listening to others, and oral participation. I will take English speaking abilities into account and will not discount for difficulties with English; I will, however, discount for using poor English as an excuse not to participate.

Policy on late work: I am willing to accept one slightly late assignment from each student. "Slightly late" means the same day the assignment is due. One homework grade will be dropped to allow for the normal amount of illness, etc. Late project reports or final exams may be subject to a late penalty. I am always willing to accept assignments early. They may be slipped under my door if I am not available. Extenuating circumstances will be handled on a case-by-case basis. In particular, according to Section 51.911 of the Texas Education Code, a student who misses an examination, work assignment, or other project due to the observance of a religious holy day must be given an opportunity to complete the work missed within a reasonable time after the absence, provided that he or she has properly notified each instructor. It is the policy of The University of Texas at Austin that the student must notify each instructor at least fourteen days prior to the classes scheduled on dates he or she will be absent to observe a religious holy day. For religious holidays that fall within the first two weeks of the semester, the notice should be given on the first day of the semester. Alternate arrangements will be made as soon as possible after notification.

Computer software: You may use any software you choose to do assignments requiring computer use, as long as the software allows you to do what is asked in the problem. Be sure to read problem instructions carefully to determine just what I am asking you to do before deciding what software to use. Excel (with the Analysis ToolPak and Solver) should be adequate for most problems assigned. (Caution: Be wary of using Excel for real life problems; unless corrections have been made recently, it has some accuracy problems with its statistical number-crunching.)

I can give you a class account for the math department computer system if you need one. The system uses the linux operating system, but some non-unix software is available through an NT server. Software that might be of interest on the math department system includes:

The math department has graduate student computer labs (small) on each of floors 8 - 13 of RLM. The undergraduate computer lab (large) is currently on the eight floor of RLM, but will be moved to ESB soon.

If you wish to try some computer software designed especially for risk analysis, you can try Analytica, available free for academic use from www.lumina.com.

Ethical matters:

1. Risk analysis inherently involves value judgments, assumptions, and uncertainly. Therefore ethical considerations are especially important in this field. In particular, risk analysts and students of risk analysis have the responsibility to:

The goal is to be honest about assumptions, value judgments, and uncertainties, and to facilitate someone else's ability to repeat your analysis with different assumptions and value judgments.

2. The University defines collaboration that is not specifically authorized as academic dishonesty.

The following type of collaboration is authorized on individual homework, but not on the final exam:

• Working on homework with someone who is at roughly the same stage of progress as you, provided both parties contribute in roughly equal quantity and quality (in particular, thinking) to whatever problem or problem parts they collaborate on.

The following types of collaboration are not authorized on individual homework:

• Working together with one person the doer and one the follower.
• Any type of copying; this includes splitting up a problem so that different people do different parts.

(A certain amount of splitting up the work will be necessary on the project; I will give you more explicit guidelines on the project assignment.)

Any type of collaboration on the final exam will be considered scholastic dishonesty.

Students with disabilities: Please notify me as soon as possible of any modification/adaptation you may require to accommodate a disability-related need. You will be requested to provide documentation to the Dean of Students' Office, in order that the most appropriate accommodations can be determined. Specialized services are available on campus through Services for Students with Disabilities. For more information, contact the Office of the Dean of Students at 471-6259, 471-4641 TTY.

Additional references: The following books have been place on reserve at the PMA library (ground floor of RLM). Please let me know if the reserve periods are too long or too short.

Binkowitz and Wartenberg, "Disparity in Quantitative Risk Assessment: A review of Input Distributions," Risk Analysis, Vol 21, February 2001, pp. 75 - 90

Cullen and Frey, Probabilistic techniques in exposure assessment

Glickman and Gough, eds, Readings in risk

Harr, A civil action

Morgan and Henrion, Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis

Ott, Environmental statistics and data analysis

You may also wish to consult the following reference which is available in the UGL Reference Collection for use in library only:

Harte, Toxics A to Z : a guide to everyday pollution hazards. / Berkeley / 1991