M375/M394C/CAM394C: Introduction to Risk Analysis

Unique Numbers 56305/56465/62240

Instructor: Smith, RLM 10.136, 471-6142, mks@math.utexas.edu

Office hours: MWF 11 - 11:30 and MW 3 - 3:30; other times by mutual agreement. I will need to cancel office hours now and then to accommodate meetings, oral
exams, etc. I will try to give you several days advance notice when this happens.

Course Announcement

First Day Handout

Risk Benchmarks (9/5/01)

Problem Solving Outline (Stock Flow problems; 9/7/01)

Assignments:

• Friday, August 31
• September 5-7
• September 14: Hand in Problems 2-A, 2-B
• September 28
• October 8 and 10 (to discuss)
• October 12
• Suggestions for doing Oct 12 homework on Minitab or Excel
• Data for Problem 4-3 (for Nov. 2 homework. Data  reformatted from the High Radon Project Minnesota data ) [PLEASE NOTE: Data is repeated twice; I haven't been able to fix this.]

Lecture notes

• August 29 (pdf format)
• September 17: PBPK Models (html)
• September 17: Problem (html)
• Radon decay (pdf)
• September 24: Solvent problems (html)
• September 26: 1. Variability and Uncertainty, 2. What is Probability? (pdf)
• October 1: Central  Limit Theorem and Normal Models (pdf)
• October 5: Ozone Air Quality Standard (pdf)
• October 10: Lognormal Distributions (pdf)
• October 19: Hidden Uncertainty (pdf)
• Bayes Theorem Example (html)
• Summary of Bayesian Analysis (pdf)
• Transparencies on Problem 4-4 (Oct. 29, Oct. 31, and Nov. 2) (html; formatting not very good, but pdf didn't work)
• Transparencies on Weibull fitting (Oct 31 and Nov. 2) (html; formatting and resolution poor)
• November 2: Toxicology and Epidemiology (pdf)
• November 5: Test Data and Carcinogenesis (pdf)
• November 7: Interspecies Extrapolation (html)
• November 12: One Hit Model Spreadsheet (html)
• November 14: Two Hit Model Spreadsheeet (html)
• November 12 - 16: Results of Three Models (html)
• November 16: Two Stage Model Spreadsheet (html), Trial and Error for Fitting 2-stage Model (html), Problem 5(c) (html)
• November 19: Dose-Response for Noncancer effects (pdf), Calculating BMD for Styrene (html)
• November 21 and 26: Heptachlor in Beef (html)
• November 26: Beef Consumption (html)
• November 28: Problem 7-2 (html)
• December 30: Fitting a one-hit model to the data in Tabel 5-2 (html)
• December 3: SIR model of disease spread (pdf)
• December 5: Spreadsheet SIR model (html)

• Cautions about significant figures:  Engineer A and Engineer B , Fable
• For more about subjective probability and Bayesian statistics, download the Introduction (pdf format) to the course in Bayesian Statistics taught by Dr. William Jefferys in Spring, 2001 (This course will probably be taught again in Fall, 2002; see the course homepage for more notes, etc.)
• Central Limit Theorem (quincunx) simulation (applet)
• Central Limit Theorem simulation (designer distributions to sample from) (Java applet)
• The High Radon Project. Link to data about radon in Minnesota and other states.
• EPA Guiding Principles for Monte Carlo Analysis
• Animation of Weibull distribution (scale parameter = 1, shape parameter changing) (click on W, then Weibull Distribution)
• Hannah Babad's Document Library of Models (pdf). Has a good section on epidemiological models.